So, there you are, sat at the Bus stop... You've checked the timetable, the automatic ETA display is updating, and every now and again when a bus does go past, the driver shouts out that your bus is going to be with you soon.
You keep checking the automatic ETA display for the bus - it says "due in 4 days", and price for a ride is 16p.
Then things start to happen. Firstly the digital ETA display goes blank. No warning. Nothing said. You get the conductor from the next bus shouting that they had been saying the next bus has been cancelled because it's empty, and that he had been saying that since November, and then you hear that the driver of the next bus has decided to get off one stop earlier because he thought he had done a good enough job of driving it for the last few years.
So, you're stood there, without a bus, and a one way ticket to ride that cost you 16p. Despite the price of a ticket having dropped by 20% in the past few days, you still sit there wondering what to do with a valid ticket but no bus to get on.
[Ed note: I originally drafted this first bit back in early 2015 but never finished it]
Then you hear that the bus has a new conductor, who once used to work on a rival bus company, but that went bust when the company ran out of money after spending all their advanced ticket sales on Gearbox design and research instead of manufacturing and selling them. Do you want to keep your ticket - or is it time to sell it on instead for whatever you can get ?
Whilst all this is happening, they tell you there's a bus going on a route in Kent. Sorry it's late, but it does accelerate very fast but the fuel efficiency isn't any different. (ahh, I hear you ask, but were the buses more punctual ? who cares - said everyone)
So we get to 2015...
In walks a new Managing Director. Genesis would have us believe Adam was the first, but it transpires that the delays to the Bus trials were too much for JD to remain with any integrity. It would seem an engineer can pull the wool over an accountants eyes, and the fallout from that was that Adam banished the KERS creator (John Hilton of Flybrid fame) from the garden of IVT with less than originally promised.
At the next AGM, JD was of course nowhere to be seen, which after the Steve Redgrave-esq request from the previous one was probably just as well, and Mr Robson set out the goals for the next 12 months.
And then, it almost happened.
The trials in Kent finished, the bus hadn't crashed, and announcements of great success and future production ensued, with confirmation of production tooling being made.
All seemed good, but lower down in the announcement it said things like "version 2" will now be on trial in early 2016. Visions of continual upgrades in technology and no actual sales rise onto the horizon again. Yet another perpetual research project I hear you say... oh not again.
And the shareprice drops. It drops to sub 4pence, and then drops some more to almost 3p. Yes that's my considerable investment reduced to 5% dust at todays rates.
But surely, if production tooling is on order, and end users and OEM's are saying they are looking forwards to further collaboration and production units in Q3 2016 this wouldn't be happening to the share price would it ?
So what is the truth and can we handle it ?
Is anyone paying for the next 20 version 2 pre-production test units for the trial buses ? well I've not seen anything that says they are.
So it's poker time. Do we have a winning hand ? Will the pre-production units prove the KERS solution, get spread to the four corners of the globe and convince them to get everything with KERS forever ? Will they be retrofitting their fleets ? and more importantly - if the pre-production version 2 units work - will the end user be paying for getting them !?!?! or is this yet another free trial give away ?
I see this time and time again in all types of business. The customer says "Can you do me a quote for designing me something and let me test it ?" and individuals and companies flock to provide the service/design/prototype for them to test. The test takes place, the potential customer (for they are not an actual paying customer yet) trials it on a proper job, makes some money, and then passes the trial unit/design/concept back to those who did all the work with a "thanks but no thanks", and either that's it (because their customer has moved on), or they take the design and give it to someone else to make - leaving the business out of pocket.
The share prices says that TRK don't have a winning hand. It also screams that there is no bankable deal (i.e. firm orders) yet to speak of, no kind of conditional offer to purchase if certain limits are met, and also that with the recent government funding for low emission bus schemes, (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/low-emission-bus-scheme and http://www.lowcvp.org.uk/initiatives/leb.htm ) has not yet announced (today is mid January 2016)- did the TRK technology materialise too late without the evidence to help companies apply for their grants ?
News always leaks, and if there was good news, the pessimist in me says the shareprice would have ticked up already.
Worst case scenario is they make 20 mk2 KERS, they all go out onto free trials, and then the grants come through for other technology and they get left on the side as the grant funded technology gets put in instead. I hope I didn't just tell you so.
The optimist in me looks to the V-Charge testing at Bath University, and Ford to come charging in on their Unicorns and universally adopt the technology. We have heard positive news of new Technology - which means that parasitic losses (i.e. having the Vcharge running at idling speed when it's not needed) have been overcome by a new design that allows the unit to be clutched in and out.
Again, are we up to the Mk3 - at what point will we have a production ready version that someone wants to actually buy and doesn't want to wait for the next version ?
Meanwhile Alison Transmissions are part way through a redesign because the original version turned out to be too good and lasted too long with the size of discs in the variator. Cue Smaller Mk2 version redesign, oh yes and a load of endurance testing (which we have heard nothing about it's progress).
When is this design and test going to be completed, and if they have the main design, are they trying to integrate it into their manufacturing plans in the future.
No news yet, it's all very very quiet.
I am still sitting at the proverbial bus stop, nothing has arrived, and shareprice "out of service, destination nowhere" has been flashed up on the interactive arrivals board. The only thing missing from the information is an ETA for the end.
Meanwhile in the rest of the world, the price of oil drops below $30 per barrel, world war is slowly breaking out in the middle east, and after 16 years since I last bought one, I reluctantly accept that I can't buy a car with any sort of TRK technology in it and get something out of necessity.
And no, I'm not going to start catching the bus instead - that's not arrived either.
16 years. Think about that for a moment. Think about what has been achieved in the world in the 16 years since the millennium bug was going to hit, whole companies have grown -
As a comparison of companies - we can look to facebook that only started in 2004. Google had only just launched in 1998. (I hear you cry that they are just software companies...)
ok then - Elon Musk (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) launched SpaceX in 2002
IVT technology is not rocket science, apparently, Rocket science is far easier.
I don't post that often on this blog, so don't expect anything probably from here until 2017 - unless something remarkable happens - I'll leave you to guess like everyone else what that could be, but going for 20 pre-production units without a bankable deal is the proverbial fig leaf over Adam's crown jewels. I hope he keeps it covered.
Until next time,
when that damn bus arrives....
Showing posts with label torotrak. Show all posts
Showing posts with label torotrak. Show all posts
Sunday, 17 January 2016
Thursday, 19 December 2013
This is not the Bus you were thinking of - December 2013
The moments passed in silence. Against the tap tap tapping of the keyboard he watched the on line news feeds anxiously awaiting the latest updates and news from the TRK half year reports as he stood at the bustop, waiting patiently.
The reports were delayed and this wasn't a good sign, or was it ? The interactive timing sign went dead over a year ago, and hadn't really flickered since.
The indication at the AGM that Flybrid was going to be bought outright by the 20th of December but needed a Shareholder General Meeting, and administrative deadlines to be met was approaching fast. It was all drifting into the last possible minutes for a deal to be done and the Half Yearly Results to be published within the right timeframes - we have been here before, so there was no panic, just solemn waiting.
But then, at the last possible opportunity, on the 2nd of December, the Half Yearly Results were published and there was
nothing.
No announcement, no material progress, no mention of ETBM, no new licensees, no new trials, and no new innovation announcements. And no sales, and no production. And nothing about Flybrid either.
The new news headlines were (in a summarised form, ignoring projects that were continuing on target in the same way as they had at the AGM)
Shocked and stunned the social chat boards descended into dismay, the share price which had started to drop from 28pence in November pretty rapidly finished the day at 20p, and just as everyone was getting themselves used to a status-quo of "we need more time to get the deal done" with a recovery to 24pence, the prospective deal and share issue was announced at 18p and an additional 54% of the company - sending the shares back down to a low of 18.5p
As it turns out it was around November when TRK were starting to ask about for the Institutions to support this Placing of new shares, so with a Half Year report
The Acquisition of Flybrid must have started before Dick Elsey left. His confident and accurate quote that by April 2013 we would be looking at a very different company - came true after all - firstly with the 20% acquisition and this all followed in behind the systemisation and manufacturing strategy that Dick himself initiated.
So, why does it feel like this latest placement and share offer is actually Flybrid taking over Torotrak ?
Flybrid - the only game in town
It is almost as if in the months leading up to the 2012 half year reports that Flybrid with its CFT (clutch based transmission) driving the flywheel had gone onto a PR exercise of the like that TRK couldn't match. At one point it seemed that Flybrid were doing everything they could to promote their solution over and above Torotraks CVT, and were getting the high profile race cars fitted out with it.
Torotrak's only answer to maintain a semblance of a product offering had to be the rather Machiavellian purchase of Flybrid - to remove the competition of the CFT. Even in technical meetings and briefings with professional engineers - "there's nothing in it really" seems to still be the considered view.
So what else could TRK have done (in hindsight) to have allayed this position ? Getting competitive is in the background of F1 engineers, but is it in the background of technical research and IP licensing experts ?
"Just build a better wheel" - is often a teaser in business - in this case - why didn't they just build a better flywheel ?
Making high speed rotating machines with Carbon Fibre drums is nothing new - hell I was making them in the mid 1990's rotating at up to 100,000rpm in a vacuum - the expertise is out there if you know where to look, but I don't think TRK did.
Torotrak, faced with an Allison project that is still years away, yet the license deal funding has all but dried up, a EBTM that has gone even more silent, a V-charge mk2 that has been designed but is only just onto a test rig, and off highway busy trundling around farms in Italy, the Flybrid acquisition was the only game in town - nobody was going to stump up the millions needed to keep TRK afloat over the next four years (until Allison start manufacture - 2017 - my estimate), and Flybrid it seemed had all the commercial interest from the likes of Volvo and Wrightbus. The TRK CVT was becoming a sideshow to the OEMs.
Meanwhile, all the manufacturers are starting to look at the legal timetable of European emissions regulations - starting to pincer in on the car industry like the beginning credits to Dads Army. 2017, and 2020 are two years looming in the distance already and they really do need a magic bullet to solve their problems and fight it off. The electric shock treatment hasn't worked - they need something more robust.
Been here before ?
The first question is - are we going to see the drift in Euro regulations as we did in the US over CAFE regulations about 8 years ago ? The lobbyists in the US successfully managed to move the goalposts to destroy the demand for the product that TRK was targetting (SUVs) and we can be sure that the lobbyists in Europe are trying their hardest to move the deadlines and prices again.
Assuming that the men of Brussels have more administrative tightropes than those in America, we can but hope that things don't change that way - but do keep your eyes open and ready !
With the hope that the Euro legislation stays in place - then there will continue to be a need for devices that conserve momentum. (Conservation of momentum is implied by Newtons third Law of motion and it would be nice to be able to come up with a catchy brand name derived from this somehow...)
Electrical devices so far seem to be limited as they look to store energy, and simply can't pack enough of it into the spaces they have. Give it 5 years I'm sure that super-capacitors made with a highly folded Graphine surface will have massive power density capabilities and be ideal for the job - but that will miss the European emission regulations and the current tranche of vehicle platforms that are being finalised right now.
Timetable
So what's the latest timetable ? I mean we could write a Gantt chart to show it all, but you can work it out from this lot:
V-Charge
Was: ETA for V-Charge mk2 demonstrators is Q4 2013
Now: mk2 demonstrators on first testing.
Now: Target 5 Trials in 2014 with Arriva (in Milton Keynes), more trial buses on 4 different companies (5 trials each)
The reports were delayed and this wasn't a good sign, or was it ? The interactive timing sign went dead over a year ago, and hadn't really flickered since.
The indication at the AGM that Flybrid was going to be bought outright by the 20th of December but needed a Shareholder General Meeting, and administrative deadlines to be met was approaching fast. It was all drifting into the last possible minutes for a deal to be done and the Half Yearly Results to be published within the right timeframes - we have been here before, so there was no panic, just solemn waiting.
But then, at the last possible opportunity, on the 2nd of December, the Half Yearly Results were published and there was
nothing.
No announcement, no material progress, no mention of ETBM, no new licensees, no new trials, and no new innovation announcements. And no sales, and no production. And nothing about Flybrid either.
The new news headlines were (in a summarised form, ignoring projects that were continuing on target in the same way as they had at the AGM)
- Allison paid some more license fee (£1.4m of £2.6m left)
- There was 6.7 million in the bank
- at a cashburn of too much to last much more than a year
- We're delighted to be talking to lots of people about... but he never said who about what - just "I am delighted by the material step up in engagement with OEM and Tier 1 manufacturers"
- We are in advanced talks to acquire the last 80% of flybrid, and err, the potential customers like that.
- Basically Dragons Den would have given them a big "I'm out" at this point.
Shocked and stunned the social chat boards descended into dismay, the share price which had started to drop from 28pence in November pretty rapidly finished the day at 20p, and just as everyone was getting themselves used to a status-quo of "we need more time to get the deal done" with a recovery to 24pence, the prospective deal and share issue was announced at 18p and an additional 54% of the company - sending the shares back down to a low of 18.5p
As it turns out it was around November when TRK were starting to ask about for the Institutions to support this Placing of new shares, so with a Half Year report
The Acquisition of Flybrid must have started before Dick Elsey left. His confident and accurate quote that by April 2013 we would be looking at a very different company - came true after all - firstly with the 20% acquisition and this all followed in behind the systemisation and manufacturing strategy that Dick himself initiated.
So, why does it feel like this latest placement and share offer is actually Flybrid taking over Torotrak ?
Flybrid - the only game in town
It is almost as if in the months leading up to the 2012 half year reports that Flybrid with its CFT (clutch based transmission) driving the flywheel had gone onto a PR exercise of the like that TRK couldn't match. At one point it seemed that Flybrid were doing everything they could to promote their solution over and above Torotraks CVT, and were getting the high profile race cars fitted out with it.
Torotrak's only answer to maintain a semblance of a product offering had to be the rather Machiavellian purchase of Flybrid - to remove the competition of the CFT. Even in technical meetings and briefings with professional engineers - "there's nothing in it really" seems to still be the considered view.
So what else could TRK have done (in hindsight) to have allayed this position ? Getting competitive is in the background of F1 engineers, but is it in the background of technical research and IP licensing experts ?
"Just build a better wheel" - is often a teaser in business - in this case - why didn't they just build a better flywheel ?
Making high speed rotating machines with Carbon Fibre drums is nothing new - hell I was making them in the mid 1990's rotating at up to 100,000rpm in a vacuum - the expertise is out there if you know where to look, but I don't think TRK did.
Torotrak, faced with an Allison project that is still years away, yet the license deal funding has all but dried up, a EBTM that has gone even more silent, a V-charge mk2 that has been designed but is only just onto a test rig, and off highway busy trundling around farms in Italy, the Flybrid acquisition was the only game in town - nobody was going to stump up the millions needed to keep TRK afloat over the next four years (until Allison start manufacture - 2017 - my estimate), and Flybrid it seemed had all the commercial interest from the likes of Volvo and Wrightbus. The TRK CVT was becoming a sideshow to the OEMs.
Meanwhile, all the manufacturers are starting to look at the legal timetable of European emissions regulations - starting to pincer in on the car industry like the beginning credits to Dads Army. 2017, and 2020 are two years looming in the distance already and they really do need a magic bullet to solve their problems and fight it off. The electric shock treatment hasn't worked - they need something more robust.
Been here before ?
The first question is - are we going to see the drift in Euro regulations as we did in the US over CAFE regulations about 8 years ago ? The lobbyists in the US successfully managed to move the goalposts to destroy the demand for the product that TRK was targetting (SUVs) and we can be sure that the lobbyists in Europe are trying their hardest to move the deadlines and prices again.
Assuming that the men of Brussels have more administrative tightropes than those in America, we can but hope that things don't change that way - but do keep your eyes open and ready !
With the hope that the Euro legislation stays in place - then there will continue to be a need for devices that conserve momentum. (Conservation of momentum is implied by Newtons third Law of motion and it would be nice to be able to come up with a catchy brand name derived from this somehow...)
Electrical devices so far seem to be limited as they look to store energy, and simply can't pack enough of it into the spaces they have. Give it 5 years I'm sure that super-capacitors made with a highly folded Graphine surface will have massive power density capabilities and be ideal for the job - but that will miss the European emission regulations and the current tranche of vehicle platforms that are being finalised right now.
Timetable
So what's the latest timetable ? I mean we could write a Gantt chart to show it all, but you can work it out from this lot:
V-Charge
Was: ETA for V-Charge mk2 demonstrators is Q4 2013
Now: mk2 demonstrators on first testing.
"The Group has delivered a number of the milestones and is on track to deliver the remaining targets in the current financial year. The Group has successfully installed the V2 next generation prototype into the Renault Clio demonstrator vehicle and is engaged in V2 testing with multiple customer applications, including a partner vehicle manufacturer for a special vehicle operation."
So - Still No ETA for V-Charge production
MKERS
Was: Buses ETA for first Buses on trial - Q2 2014Now: Target 5 Trials in 2014 with Arriva (in Milton Keynes), more trial buses on 4 different companies (5 trials each)
First sold bus products scheduled for 2015
Cars Production ETA guess Q4 2016 given the new platform schedule from Volvo - some preproduction demos before. Euro legislation deadline 2017
The watchword is still "Retrofit"
Main IVT (large vehicles)
No clear ETA for Allison, but guess at Q4 2016
No ETA for ETBMNo news from Off Highway - although there are Carraro trials going on in the fields near them.
So, in summary:
Flybrid played a good game and got the win, is it a win-win, or a win-lose for shareholders we don't know. With a massive 54% additional shares being issued to the institutions, with directors themselves investing at the 18p price floor and Allison maintaining their ~1/8th holding in the company, there seems a lot of support.
Private shareholders were apparently given the 1 for 8 uptake offer at the behest of Torotrak, without which we would actually have had no chance to acquire any part of the placing at this very clear discount. It's better to have something than nothing, but it does indicate how tight the investment houses have played this hand.
So in the interim, people are selling a little high and buying back in with their uptake volume - this will of course drive the share price down in the short term to the 18p+trading costs price.
Is the company in a stronger place now? - yes.
Has it happened as smoothly as we would have liked ? probably not. Someone somewhere was waiting for a deal to happen and they ran out of time.
Hopefully the Flybrid entrepreneurship and flair for PR will be brought to TRK and we will start to see some more colourful and interesting newsflow and opportunities breaking through.
Am I frustrated at the dilution of my holding ? Yes and No. I would have liked a better uptake offer (nearer 54% would have been good), but have I sold my shares? nope. I still have the same amount - and until I sell them they have no tangible value. 18p represents the probable cash value of the new combined company, so the uptake offer still seems like worthwhile if you have the money as we can see the future value being brought to the business.
Basically - if you think there is a chance to market, Torotrak have decided to throw the kitchen sink at it to make sure they hit the 2017 window of legislation opportunity. The other plan was to sit back, downsize and wait for Allison to get some buses fitted with main transmissions and wait for royalties. Basically I'm pleased they have decided to go for it, and it should make for a bigger company, but I do hope they don't take their eyes off the ball and lose momentum with Vcharge2 in the meantime.
My guess is that you should brace yourselves for another round of fundraising in 2017 to fund an up-scale in production facilities - either for M-KERS or V-Charge. Fingers crossed - it will be both. Dividends - prediction is 2020 - I will have been invested for 23 years by then.
In the meantime, we say to JD as he gets on the Great Escape Flybrid bus that has just pulled up: Good Luck !
(and lets hope he doesn't get caught.)
Now, can someone please put an MKERS, IVT and a VCharge on the same vehicle and really show what they can all do together as a massive combined demo opportunity...
No clear ETA for Allison, but guess at Q4 2016
No ETA for ETBMNo news from Off Highway - although there are Carraro trials going on in the fields near them.
So, in summary:
Flybrid played a good game and got the win, is it a win-win, or a win-lose for shareholders we don't know. With a massive 54% additional shares being issued to the institutions, with directors themselves investing at the 18p price floor and Allison maintaining their ~1/8th holding in the company, there seems a lot of support.
Private shareholders were apparently given the 1 for 8 uptake offer at the behest of Torotrak, without which we would actually have had no chance to acquire any part of the placing at this very clear discount. It's better to have something than nothing, but it does indicate how tight the investment houses have played this hand.
So in the interim, people are selling a little high and buying back in with their uptake volume - this will of course drive the share price down in the short term to the 18p+trading costs price.
Is the company in a stronger place now? - yes.
Has it happened as smoothly as we would have liked ? probably not. Someone somewhere was waiting for a deal to happen and they ran out of time.
Hopefully the Flybrid entrepreneurship and flair for PR will be brought to TRK and we will start to see some more colourful and interesting newsflow and opportunities breaking through.
Am I frustrated at the dilution of my holding ? Yes and No. I would have liked a better uptake offer (nearer 54% would have been good), but have I sold my shares? nope. I still have the same amount - and until I sell them they have no tangible value. 18p represents the probable cash value of the new combined company, so the uptake offer still seems like worthwhile if you have the money as we can see the future value being brought to the business.
Basically - if you think there is a chance to market, Torotrak have decided to throw the kitchen sink at it to make sure they hit the 2017 window of legislation opportunity. The other plan was to sit back, downsize and wait for Allison to get some buses fitted with main transmissions and wait for royalties. Basically I'm pleased they have decided to go for it, and it should make for a bigger company, but I do hope they don't take their eyes off the ball and lose momentum with Vcharge2 in the meantime.
My guess is that you should brace yourselves for another round of fundraising in 2017 to fund an up-scale in production facilities - either for M-KERS or V-Charge. Fingers crossed - it will be both. Dividends - prediction is 2020 - I will have been invested for 23 years by then.
In the meantime, we say to JD as he gets on the Great Escape Flybrid bus that has just pulled up: Good Luck !
(and lets hope he doesn't get caught.)
Now, can someone please put an MKERS, IVT and a VCharge on the same vehicle and really show what they can all do together as a massive combined demo opportunity...
Thursday, 25 July 2013
Sat waiting at the Bus Stop - Pre AGM 2013
As I start to write this blog, the AGM will have been in progress for about 40 minutes. Having not seen any smoke signals prior to it, and working late last night, I made the tactical quality of life decision not to go, and reading the interim statement issued this morning before 11am confirms that being there won't have changed my investment decision, missed out on champagne, nor the strategic direction of the company which has - as you will no doubt know - taken on a more commercial intent in the past 12 months.
Investment wise, we are now all sitting at the proverbial bus-stop. Waiting. Others on the discussion boards have come along and waited, muttered something about them always being late, the queue has got longer, shorter, being late, is it electric, some have turned up asking if taxis stop here or if anyone knows when the next bus will arrive. The answer to all this is: nope, not really.
We had an exciting moment a few years ago when the grass around the bus stop got mown, but that soon moved on and out of sight to another place.
The one thing you do know at a bus stop though is that one day, one day, a bus might just turn up, and the longer you wait, the more probable you hope it becomes.
You see, this isn't one of those fancy bus stops with a digital display counting down the minutes to the next buses arrival, it doesn't really even say where it's going to go, just that there are some destinations on its route. It's one of those buses you would have caught in the 1980's where you only really knew what was happening when the driver of a different bus going in the wrong direction would shout out some information to you about it being broken down.
So far as we know it's not currently broken down, but the route in the future includes Japan, Italy, England, Sweden and the US. We know it's been to Germany once or twice too, but beyond that, we just sit and wait. The rain and wind sweeps around the sides, and every now and again someone comes and pins up a revised timetable. Fortunately nobody has come and pinned up an "no stopping here" sign yet, so let's have a more detailed look at the new timetable...
Main Drive Transmissions
Allison have paid for exclusivity and are batch paying down the last £6M. They have £2.6M left to pay before 31st march 2014. Testing is always a bottleneck so new test rigs have been made to get the production design and "production representative variator components from production suppliers" finally tested.
In terms of developing a manufacturing supply chain - proving out your suppliers components is a standard ISO9000 quality compliance process. You get a new supplier to make real world parts - not just one off samples, and then you test them to check they are ok. If they are ok, you sign off the supplier and their manufacturing process, one day place your order and then get it into pre-production when all the other parts are ready.
Then you build pre-production units (usually with the proven and tested first parts), test those and then test your entire design to check all is ok, and in the meantime you build a factory to put it all together, train people to make them, load your supply chain with parts, and then if everything is still ok, you start to build them... so in my estimate that's at least two years away if not three - because - well - it's huge and the test rigs don't need to be sorted until March 2014 - and that's 8 months away.
We have to remember that all this has to go together to fit into a bus, so the demand for the transmissions needs to fit into that product marketing as well. Oh, another potential delay.
It is however good that the critical path of testing has been addressed by Torotrak. It's also interesting that TRK have kept it in house, Allison have not decided to have test rigs installed at their site (or so I infer - perhaps I'm assuming that?) It does seem that £2M of the remaining license fee is subject to this testing, so BAM!, now you know where the license fee has gone - test rigs. By March 2014
Speaking as an ex-engineer, you can never have enough test rigs, so it's good to have them funded rather than not funded !
So, no clear ETA for Allison, but guess at Q4 2016 (remember the legislation kicks in 2017)
No mention of the European Truck and Bus Manufacturer (ETBM) was made in the statement, so unless something comes out of the AGM, we refer to the last statement which said they were going to make a decision as they had found that even long distance trucking benefited from the transmission, which was a nice surprise apparently.
No ETA possible
MKERS / Flybrid
1. Cars
The amount of press and publicity noise around the VolvoS60 demo with the Kers unit fitted suggests this is getting serious. Companies don't put out that much marketing and PR of a prototype unless they are at the "seriously considering" stage of consumer reaction. The noise seems to have been generated by straight cut gears instead of helically cut ones -
Now that Flybrid is 20% owned by TRK and have options to go to 100% it would seem that OEMs are more interested in dealing with a single product supplier to put the whole Kers package together - so getting a T1 supplier sorted out should be more interesting times ahead.
ETA guess Q1 2016 given the new platform schedule from Volvo
2. Buses
Arriva trials remain on track for March 2014, with flybrid installed in a Wrightbus vehicle.
Flybrid are also making test rigs so they can get production going (see a common theme?)
2015 is current target for full commercial production capability with proven equipment.
ETA for first Buses on trial - Q2 2014
No ETA for Bus Production
V-Charge
Version 2 is on the test rig - once completed it will go into demonstrator vehicles.
ETA for V-Charge mk2 demonstrators is Q4 2013
Given the interest being shown from T1 and T2 partners, ETA Production ? guess at Q4 2016
Market forces
12 years ago I passed an academic analysis of the Market forces affecting Torotrak to the then finance director Rebecca. Even then it was clear (as it is with many products in the world) that demand for the product was going to be driven by legislation more than customer demand. If the CAFE regulations proposed in 2001 had been implemented as originally prescribed then it's likely that we would already have full IVT SUV's trucking about the USA. however they didn't and as with all things Government and legislative - it is getting there, just a bit slower.
We are now faced with the 2017 legislation deadlines in Europe and the USA that will start to drive financially based investment decisions by the OEMs
The legislation ultimately is driving the need for lower fuel economy. Bus operators quite like the idea of 20% lower fuel bills, but an OEM as long as they have the most fuel efficient vehicle in relative terms don't care how efficient it is - it just needs to be good relative to the competition.
It is only with the legislation pushing a performance value and a number onto the manufactures that the OEMs see it as a financial business decision to implement the technology. With the IVT, V-Charge and M-Kers offering the step change in performance that they need - Torotraks products and IP will become more and more interesting to them.
Mission Creep ?
I noticed a change to Torotraks mission statement the other day, slipped under the radar a bit, but of huge significance -
It now goes blah blah blah.."technologies that reduce vehicle emissions and improve transport efficiency"
This is a very very broad remit. It's so broad it's almost impossible to know where to start when asking "so what do you do?" if you met someone from Torotrak at a party
What was it before you ask ?
In 2008 the Annual report said "Torotrak is the world leader in full-toroidal traction-drive transmission technology, focused on the development of IVT (Infinitely Variable Transmission) and TCVT (Toroidal
Continuously Variable Transmission) systems which deliver outstanding levels of performance, functionality and commercial advantage in automotive, truck, bus, outdoor power equipment, agricultural and off highway
applications."
So now the new mission doesn't explicitly say anything about Toroidal transmissions, (that would put Flybrids CFT out), and nothing about IVT (that would put MKERS and V-CHarge out).
But at least we now know that they have ruled out any applications on static systems that might need a variable output (compressors, generators etc) because they refer specifically to vehicles.
Summary
So what's the updated timetable ? in possible time order
V-Charge
ETA for V-Charge mk2 demonstrators is Q4 2013
No ETA for V-Charge production
MKERS
Buses ETA for first Buses on trial - Q2 2014No Bus production ETA
Cars Production ETA guess Q1 2016 given the new platform schedule from Volvo - some preproduction demos before
Main IVT (large vehicles)
No clear ETA for Allison, but guess at Q4 2016
No ETA for ETBM
If we're lucky, perhaps a few buses will turn up at the same time ? but don't hold your breath if they do we don't currently know their colour, speed or size. At least we know they might have a Torotrak Variator in them somewhere...
In the meantime, you and I will have to continue to sit at the bus-stop with Buzz Lightyear. to indefinite and beyond... (image removed unfortunately because it was just a jpg from a website, but the website address apparently red-flagged a few browsers)
I hope everyone enjoyed the AGM and the tech talk, and hope we haven't voted to dilute the share value down to zero quite yet.
Wednesday, 24 October 2012
So much to come - but still on the horizon ?
It's been a long year since I last posted any update here, but I'm prompted by laziness in not having to type it all myself when I read another blog that sums it up quite well.
Here it is: http://autoindustrynewsletter.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/torotrak-where-to-now-torotrak-has-new.html
We have had several items of news over the past moths, V-charge coming to the fore as the test bed shows itself to be rather nice to drive (but other torotrak systems in the past have also been rather nice to drive too), Allison transmissions putting down a deposit on their last payment - moving them closer final exclusivity license, ETBM results actually working out better than they had expected for longhaul work as well as start-stop cycles, and the MKERS flywheel being put forwards for real life trials in busses, and Volvo cars showing interest, and the planned establishment of a systemisation and finishing production facility at TRK HQ itself all points towards "stuff happening" with more rigour and engagement with the possible companies who will be selling it at the end of it all.
Then, just to drop the bomb, Mr Elsy went and got a new job. The positive sign is that when asked he confirmed that he would be keeping hold of his shares, so it's not quite as if he is jumping from a sinking ship - and one hopes he's not just politicking that one by just holding on them regardless (after all, essentially his shares are a nice extra in life, not a necessity for the cost of living). If he does get to an AGM in the future it will be interesting to see if he starts in with any questions.
So we are into a new era - Jeremy Dearing has pulled the trigger on the ballista for next year with all the progress in the above mentioned projects, and to quote the last thing Dick said to me when I last met him - "by April next year we will be looking at a very different company".
I hope from this he meant one that is in profit, and that he was referring to Torotrak. Given him leaving he could have meant something completely different !
I continue to hold, I watch for Allison to turn into a permanent licensee but without further dilution of the share issue, the medium term start of the production of units for the bus trials, and more news on V-charge being not only announced as customer trial but also with possibilities of it being sold as a retrofit kit for petrol-heads.
With all of TRK technology that is not mainline transmission and power train, then the watchword for me is "retrofit". That is where the largest market opportunity lies for MKERS, and V-Charge - and it's a massive challenge but with massive rewards.
Until next time something pops-up.
P.S. Please don't cut and paste this onto forums - just link back to this article on the website. Thank you.
Here it is: http://autoindustrynewsletter.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/torotrak-where-to-now-torotrak-has-new.html
We have had several items of news over the past moths, V-charge coming to the fore as the test bed shows itself to be rather nice to drive (but other torotrak systems in the past have also been rather nice to drive too), Allison transmissions putting down a deposit on their last payment - moving them closer final exclusivity license, ETBM results actually working out better than they had expected for longhaul work as well as start-stop cycles, and the MKERS flywheel being put forwards for real life trials in busses, and Volvo cars showing interest, and the planned establishment of a systemisation and finishing production facility at TRK HQ itself all points towards "stuff happening" with more rigour and engagement with the possible companies who will be selling it at the end of it all.
Then, just to drop the bomb, Mr Elsy went and got a new job. The positive sign is that when asked he confirmed that he would be keeping hold of his shares, so it's not quite as if he is jumping from a sinking ship - and one hopes he's not just politicking that one by just holding on them regardless (after all, essentially his shares are a nice extra in life, not a necessity for the cost of living). If he does get to an AGM in the future it will be interesting to see if he starts in with any questions.
So we are into a new era - Jeremy Dearing has pulled the trigger on the ballista for next year with all the progress in the above mentioned projects, and to quote the last thing Dick said to me when I last met him - "by April next year we will be looking at a very different company".
I hope from this he meant one that is in profit, and that he was referring to Torotrak. Given him leaving he could have meant something completely different !
I continue to hold, I watch for Allison to turn into a permanent licensee but without further dilution of the share issue, the medium term start of the production of units for the bus trials, and more news on V-charge being not only announced as customer trial but also with possibilities of it being sold as a retrofit kit for petrol-heads.
With all of TRK technology that is not mainline transmission and power train, then the watchword for me is "retrofit". That is where the largest market opportunity lies for MKERS, and V-Charge - and it's a massive challenge but with massive rewards.
Until next time something pops-up.
P.S. Please don't cut and paste this onto forums - just link back to this article on the website. Thank you.
Wednesday, 13 April 2011
Pixellation of a share price
A brief update from January (read earlier Blog), because things have moved on a bit since then at Torotrak in Leyland.
Pixellated
Firstly if you missed the Geneva motorshow - you will have missed out the news that Tata (owners of landrover and jaguar amongst others) showed off a prototype of a new super-mini passenger car - the Tata Pixel.
http://www.tatapixel.com/
The good news is that since then Tata have committed to production of the Pixel, potentially in as little as three years. Despite it being a prototype the one thing that they have said will carry over to production will be it's ability to turn on a very small turning circle. The good news for Torotrak shareholders is that this is enabled by using a Torotrak transmission in the rear axle - so it looks like the transmission at last has a potential customer in the automotive sector.
The shareprice responded by going from about 20p through 50p and then settling at about 41p.
I know in the January blog I ruled out in my personal opinion any inclusion of the TRK transmission in the Tata Nano - their other car which is already in production - so technically I'm right on that note - however I'll confess that I expected Tata to come out with a bus-sized transmission before they went to the automotive sector.
It's nice to be wrong every now and again. We await news over the next few years of pre-production testing and what-car sneak-peak reviews from Warwick where the car is being developed.
Allison wholemeal
When questions start about what is going to be the bread and butter revenue and dividend income for Torotrak over the years, today's (13th April 2011) announcement on the continuing license deal to go to production-ready design with Allison might be the answer.
http://www.torotrak.com/pdfs/rns/2011/further_commit_Allison_final_13.04.11.pdf
Basically it's an £8m license continuation fee in the 14,000 tonne vehicle market. Importantly the other licencee in this market (the unnamed European Truck and Bus Manufacture ETBM) have exclusive rights from when they started their program - so if Allison had not renewed their license - it would have handed global exclusivity to the ETBM and prevented Allison from being able to continue their work - despite being 9% shareholders in Torotrak until 2013. On reflection it looks like common sense that Allison were going to renew their license - the question was always - how much and for how long ? well 2013 is the answer - so here's two years work for Torotrak in engineering consultancy.
If you can unwind the wording about what rights they have after 2013 - well that's anybodies guess. Also - getting to production ready is not the same as a production announcement - so lets keep an eye on the directors 2013 vesting share options to make sure they don't slip past the radar of the remuneration committee (they are subject to the transmission being in production, not just designed for production - there is a vast difference as we found out at MTD).
It is overall excellent news and I'm pleased to see that Allison didn't wait to the last - which is a good indication of a working relationship between the two companies.
It is also important to note the comments of the latest news about fuel economy legislation as well as NOx legislation (Euro IV) where it goes as far as saying that Torotrak technology can help with this by running the engine at it's most efficient operating points. It stops short of saying it can meet EuroIV totally - but then I guess that depends on the engine design that you have strapped it to in the first place.
The announcement also takes the chance to mention the other large truck programme - ETBM which is so far confidential as to who it is. We await the confirmation that the ETBM has completed testing of their new vehicle (confirmed as handed over to them by Torotrak) - but that might take another year or so. If they break cover on production design plans that might also have a material impact on the shareprice.
So, whilst we watch the shareprice touch 50p today up from 42p, the next publicised news will be the year end report on May the 24th (the FY year ended on March the 31st so it will miss this Allison announcement).
Keep an eye out for the year end report, as progress on the Flybrid project on automotive vehicles (jaguar) will hopefully again push Torotrak into the wider public conciousness. Rotrak might make an outside showing of positive test results - but they might not have made any test units yet - we watch and wait.
Congratualtions to all those who have now broken back through your break even price on Torotrak holdings. I for one won't be selling at any time soon - I've factored in the cost of 10 years of holding this share and the price has to rise a fair bit more for me to hit that particular break even point - and anyway - I'm investing to make a profit - otherwise - why invest.
One thing the Allison announcement does give us - a potential royalty stream being derived from about 2015 if they make it into production. So that's only four more years to go. They might want to go a bit faster if they are to keep below the legislation restrictions on the horizon.
Good luck and until next time
Pixellated
Firstly if you missed the Geneva motorshow - you will have missed out the news that Tata (owners of landrover and jaguar amongst others) showed off a prototype of a new super-mini passenger car - the Tata Pixel.
http://www.tatapixel.com/
The good news is that since then Tata have committed to production of the Pixel, potentially in as little as three years. Despite it being a prototype the one thing that they have said will carry over to production will be it's ability to turn on a very small turning circle. The good news for Torotrak shareholders is that this is enabled by using a Torotrak transmission in the rear axle - so it looks like the transmission at last has a potential customer in the automotive sector.
The shareprice responded by going from about 20p through 50p and then settling at about 41p.
I know in the January blog I ruled out in my personal opinion any inclusion of the TRK transmission in the Tata Nano - their other car which is already in production - so technically I'm right on that note - however I'll confess that I expected Tata to come out with a bus-sized transmission before they went to the automotive sector.
It's nice to be wrong every now and again. We await news over the next few years of pre-production testing and what-car sneak-peak reviews from Warwick where the car is being developed.
Allison wholemeal
When questions start about what is going to be the bread and butter revenue and dividend income for Torotrak over the years, today's (13th April 2011) announcement on the continuing license deal to go to production-ready design with Allison might be the answer.
http://www.torotrak.com/pdfs/rns/2011/further_commit_Allison_final_13.04.11.pdf
Basically it's an £8m license continuation fee in the 14,000 tonne vehicle market. Importantly the other licencee in this market (the unnamed European Truck and Bus Manufacture ETBM) have exclusive rights from when they started their program - so if Allison had not renewed their license - it would have handed global exclusivity to the ETBM and prevented Allison from being able to continue their work - despite being 9% shareholders in Torotrak until 2013. On reflection it looks like common sense that Allison were going to renew their license - the question was always - how much and for how long ? well 2013 is the answer - so here's two years work for Torotrak in engineering consultancy.
If you can unwind the wording about what rights they have after 2013 - well that's anybodies guess. Also - getting to production ready is not the same as a production announcement - so lets keep an eye on the directors 2013 vesting share options to make sure they don't slip past the radar of the remuneration committee (they are subject to the transmission being in production, not just designed for production - there is a vast difference as we found out at MTD).
It is overall excellent news and I'm pleased to see that Allison didn't wait to the last - which is a good indication of a working relationship between the two companies.
It is also important to note the comments of the latest news about fuel economy legislation as well as NOx legislation (Euro IV) where it goes as far as saying that Torotrak technology can help with this by running the engine at it's most efficient operating points. It stops short of saying it can meet EuroIV totally - but then I guess that depends on the engine design that you have strapped it to in the first place.
The announcement also takes the chance to mention the other large truck programme - ETBM which is so far confidential as to who it is. We await the confirmation that the ETBM has completed testing of their new vehicle (confirmed as handed over to them by Torotrak) - but that might take another year or so. If they break cover on production design plans that might also have a material impact on the shareprice.
So, whilst we watch the shareprice touch 50p today up from 42p, the next publicised news will be the year end report on May the 24th (the FY year ended on March the 31st so it will miss this Allison announcement).
Keep an eye out for the year end report, as progress on the Flybrid project on automotive vehicles (jaguar) will hopefully again push Torotrak into the wider public conciousness. Rotrak might make an outside showing of positive test results - but they might not have made any test units yet - we watch and wait.
Congratualtions to all those who have now broken back through your break even price on Torotrak holdings. I for one won't be selling at any time soon - I've factored in the cost of 10 years of holding this share and the price has to rise a fair bit more for me to hit that particular break even point - and anyway - I'm investing to make a profit - otherwise - why invest.
One thing the Allison announcement does give us - a potential royalty stream being derived from about 2015 if they make it into production. So that's only four more years to go. They might want to go a bit faster if they are to keep below the legislation restrictions on the horizon.
Good luck and until next time
Monday, 17 January 2011
Current State of the TRK Nation - January 2011
It's not often one comes across a good write up of Torotrak with it's history and hopes. If you want a crash course in TRK Torotrak - this is a good place to start.
Recently one has been made as a reason for entering a virtual share price-rise competition:
http://boards.fool.co.uk/nfsc-write-up-torotrak-trk-12151512.aspx
I don't personally agree with anything regarding the Tata Nano on the report - but that's just my perspective.
If there are any new investors who want a shortcut to their investor research in Torotrak - I'd recommend that they have a read of it. Then go and have a read of the TRK house broker note from last December 2010.
Thanks to the author Mikkko for such a thorough going over the history and summarising the salient points.
Recently one has been made as a reason for entering a virtual share price-rise competition:
http://boards.fool.co.uk/nfsc-write-up-torotrak-trk-12151512.aspx
I don't personally agree with anything regarding the Tata Nano on the report - but that's just my perspective.
If there are any new investors who want a shortcut to their investor research in Torotrak - I'd recommend that they have a read of it. Then go and have a read of the TRK house broker note from last December 2010.
Thanks to the author Mikkko for such a thorough going over the history and summarising the salient points.
Saturday, 27 November 2010
2010 Half year results and New Brokers
Since the last post on this blog there has been considerable progress in the business partners projects with Torotrak.
Firstly I suggest you go and have a read of the Torotrak Half Year report here: http://www.torotrak.com/pdfs/rns/2010/Half-year-results_final_23.11.10.pdf
There are several bits of good news contained in the report, some strategic, some to do with progress and others to do with publicity. You might also want to read the new broker report from new brokers Charles Stanley. They have put an initial share value target of 40p up as their first shot.
Firstly the long awaited MTD license curtailment is now underway and their rights to use the Infinitrak IP being restricted. Sources inside MTD have long said they can't manufacture the TTT or STT (or would that be some of the employees don't want to create competition for their incumbent hydraulic solution ?) - and we have known for over 6 months about the problems. After the missed design freeze in June it was never going to hit production this autumn. Strategically this now frees Torotrak to persue other customers for the STT and it's unique capabilities - which presents a great opportunity for new business development. It's almost a reverse Toyota situation, the customer couldn't get the design to work but this time TRK pulled the plug, not the customer. This alone indicates an improved confidence in the designs by Torotrak.
There is a huge list of partners getting nearer the point of convincing themselves that there can be no turning back to fixed gear ratios. It is truly getting to an exciting part in Torotraks history with large well respected companies investing significant amounts of their own time and money to make IVT technology become a reality.
Again I will remind you to read the half year report - I'm not going to replicate it here, as a long time follower I can see that slowly the technology is being fitted into the practical capabilities it has.
A long time ago I wrote a strategic assignment for a postgraduate degree - using Torotrak as a case study. The conclusion of it was twofold. 1. The need for IVT technology will be driven by legislation - and finally now the Euro Emmission regulations are looming on the horizons and the fines looking more like a reality - the vehicle manufacturers are getting their acts together rapidly. 2. Non-powertrain solutions have been found to get round the "not invented here" and incumbent technology investment (i.e. 6AT gearboxes in saloon cars).
The long term strategy has to be "surround the enemy" (in the words of Sun-Tsu) to develop so many solutions being used so widely that it becomes a no-brainer for passenger cars to adopt the technology. Passenger cars being the volume business that would deliver true TRK value.
This Strategic solution is finally being realised with several derivations of IVT technology making it into reality across different sizes, applications and concepts.
1. Main transmissions
2. KERS (Flywheel)
3. Engine speed de-coupling devices.
Retrofit.
The exciting market prospect of being able to retrofit a KERS unit into a commercial vehicle is mouthwatering. Instead of the delay of awaiting for the new vehicle production programme to come to fruition (three to 5 years at least just to get to market launch), once a viable economic solution has been developed - it can be installed. Will it be installed ? - in the hard economics of the haulage industry anything with a 1 year payback will be snapped up. If you have an Allison transmission with a PTO languishing about - here's your chance to save some money and be more competitive.
Taking the retrofit route as a faster one to market penetration, one has to look at the possibilities of retrofit not just for KERS units but for Main Transmissions and Rotrak Superchargers. My personal conclusion is that Rotrak may have some possibilities,, main transmissions almost none, but a Retrofit KERS unit into a passenger car remains a much larger goal to be targetting.
Outlook for 2011
With prototype work starting to bear tangible real world results (not just mathematical model results), and a real ride experience that can be felt, the decision makers at Torotrak Licensee companies will soon be putting down hard money for real new vehicle production projects. With their experiences of TRK technology I fully expect that those projects will have a view to the inclusion of TRK technology. I just hope that TRK are ensuring that the decision makers are going to get that experience and make them advocates of the technology.
2011 is going to be the year that critical decisions will be made by the large licensee companies. Until those decisions are made, Torotrak is just another UK technology company. After those decisions are made Torotrak and IVT technology could be one of the most disruptive technologies we have seen since the invention of the car gearbox in the 20th century.
If you invest in Torotrak for dividends, you have about 4-5 more years at least to wait (if not longer depending on the future R&D investments), but if you are investing because of perceived future value - then you'll probably want to be in before those big decisions are made. We watch and wait with patience.
(p.s. all of this report is conjecture and has no value or robustness associated with it in any way and may not be taken as advice. Always do your own research and responsibility for your own financial matters)
Firstly I suggest you go and have a read of the Torotrak Half Year report here: http://www.torotrak.com/pdfs/rns/2010/Half-year-results_final_23.11.10.pdf
There are several bits of good news contained in the report, some strategic, some to do with progress and others to do with publicity. You might also want to read the new broker report from new brokers Charles Stanley. They have put an initial share value target of 40p up as their first shot.
Firstly the long awaited MTD license curtailment is now underway and their rights to use the Infinitrak IP being restricted. Sources inside MTD have long said they can't manufacture the TTT or STT (or would that be some of the employees don't want to create competition for their incumbent hydraulic solution ?) - and we have known for over 6 months about the problems. After the missed design freeze in June it was never going to hit production this autumn. Strategically this now frees Torotrak to persue other customers for the STT and it's unique capabilities - which presents a great opportunity for new business development. It's almost a reverse Toyota situation, the customer couldn't get the design to work but this time TRK pulled the plug, not the customer. This alone indicates an improved confidence in the designs by Torotrak.
There is a huge list of partners getting nearer the point of convincing themselves that there can be no turning back to fixed gear ratios. It is truly getting to an exciting part in Torotraks history with large well respected companies investing significant amounts of their own time and money to make IVT technology become a reality.
Again I will remind you to read the half year report - I'm not going to replicate it here, as a long time follower I can see that slowly the technology is being fitted into the practical capabilities it has.
A long time ago I wrote a strategic assignment for a postgraduate degree - using Torotrak as a case study. The conclusion of it was twofold. 1. The need for IVT technology will be driven by legislation - and finally now the Euro Emmission regulations are looming on the horizons and the fines looking more like a reality - the vehicle manufacturers are getting their acts together rapidly. 2. Non-powertrain solutions have been found to get round the "not invented here" and incumbent technology investment (i.e. 6AT gearboxes in saloon cars).
The long term strategy has to be "surround the enemy" (in the words of Sun-Tsu) to develop so many solutions being used so widely that it becomes a no-brainer for passenger cars to adopt the technology. Passenger cars being the volume business that would deliver true TRK value.
This Strategic solution is finally being realised with several derivations of IVT technology making it into reality across different sizes, applications and concepts.
1. Main transmissions
- European Bus and Truck - three regime IVT powertrain installed
- Allison - Technology transfer complete for full IVT powertrain production ready design
- Carraro continue to exhibit and accellerate their IVT family of VARY-T transmissions
2. KERS (Flywheel)
- Flybus - Retrofit KERS (kinetic energy recovery solution) using an auxilliary power take off on the normal transmission. Cheaper than electric hybrid and more efficient. And more environmental !
- Flybrid - new install - Test transmission installed in Jaguar saloon car for on road testing
3. Engine speed de-coupling devices.
- Rotrak - Variable drive supercharging. This allows the effectiveness of the boost to be felt properly at all engine revs, not just at a certain rev-range. This means smaller engines can have a much higher power output and better driveability. Along with the obvious emmissions reduction.
Retrofit.
The exciting market prospect of being able to retrofit a KERS unit into a commercial vehicle is mouthwatering. Instead of the delay of awaiting for the new vehicle production programme to come to fruition (three to 5 years at least just to get to market launch), once a viable economic solution has been developed - it can be installed. Will it be installed ? - in the hard economics of the haulage industry anything with a 1 year payback will be snapped up. If you have an Allison transmission with a PTO languishing about - here's your chance to save some money and be more competitive.
Taking the retrofit route as a faster one to market penetration, one has to look at the possibilities of retrofit not just for KERS units but for Main Transmissions and Rotrak Superchargers. My personal conclusion is that Rotrak may have some possibilities,, main transmissions almost none, but a Retrofit KERS unit into a passenger car remains a much larger goal to be targetting.
Outlook for 2011
With prototype work starting to bear tangible real world results (not just mathematical model results), and a real ride experience that can be felt, the decision makers at Torotrak Licensee companies will soon be putting down hard money for real new vehicle production projects. With their experiences of TRK technology I fully expect that those projects will have a view to the inclusion of TRK technology. I just hope that TRK are ensuring that the decision makers are going to get that experience and make them advocates of the technology.
2011 is going to be the year that critical decisions will be made by the large licensee companies. Until those decisions are made, Torotrak is just another UK technology company. After those decisions are made Torotrak and IVT technology could be one of the most disruptive technologies we have seen since the invention of the car gearbox in the 20th century.
If you invest in Torotrak for dividends, you have about 4-5 more years at least to wait (if not longer depending on the future R&D investments), but if you are investing because of perceived future value - then you'll probably want to be in before those big decisions are made. We watch and wait with patience.
(p.s. all of this report is conjecture and has no value or robustness associated with it in any way and may not be taken as advice. Always do your own research and responsibility for your own financial matters)
Thursday, 22 July 2010
AGM 2010 and Tech Talk
Just a gentle reminder that it is the AGM taking place next week on the 29th of July 2010
More information here: http://torotrak.com/content/401/AGM-2010-details.aspx
The annual report is available here for those who have not yet read it:
http://torotrak.com/pdfs/annreps/Torotrak%20Annual%20Report%202010_final_for%20web_22%2006%2010.pdf
With promises of a launch of the quieter transmission from Infinitrak in MTD lawnmowers almost for a year now, and the possible news of the KERS unit being fitted to a Jag anytime soon as part of the TSB project there should be something for everyone, or just a sausage roll.
Progress with Allison and their standardised IVT transmission - and where they stand on licenses as well as the news on the current testing rigs for the European bus & truck manufacturer should be covered.
Additionally new partnerships as Rotrak for superchargers will be a topic of interest too. From the books it looks like TRK have put all the money in (even if it is as a loan - which seems a bit shakey) - but there is a nice photo of the CAD model on the website now.
Tech Talk
If you're interested the traditional pre-AGM tech talk has been arranged on this topic:
Subject... "The application of Toroidal Variable Auxiliary Drives (TVAD's) to super chargers"
Speakers... Roger Stone & Chris Brockbank
Time... 7:30pm on Wed 28th July
Location... http://www.hunterslodgemotel.co.uk/
Seeing as the preliminary results stated they are going to try to focus on shareholder value (and in one comment say that the shareholders to date therefore have not been getting any), it will be an interesting AGM to see if director salaries, royalties and licenses are going to be addressed as well as if more investment in joint ventures is the new flavour of the board.
The main concern is if the funds in the coffers are starting to burn holes in the boards pockets and they are getting jumpy. If there is excess money left in the coffers then a share-buy-back scheme might be the fastest way to deliver shareholder value. One other suggestion has been to get another licensee to purchase shares in the company - which is all well and good - but that is only likely to result in another share issue and dilution of shareholder value. Heaven forbid, they could even issue a DIVIDEND. But I've not got any hopes up.
Analysis of the preliminary report showed the short to medium term future of Torotrak is in the hands of Allison Transmissions - all outcomes are good - as long as they keep their current license - not continuing at all would obviously be bad. Some people seem to be holding out for Allison to take up all their global exclusivity options and more in terms of power rating - and anything else is bad news - which I can't agree with - as long as they are bringing their transmission to market that's great. If they are focussing on one solution at a time to get it to market and make it work in time for the emissions legislation that will hit - brilliant. The only bad news is if they stop all development - which for a company which owns 9% of TRK - is on the "highly unlikely" side of the scale.
Some news of Carraro would be welcomed, and any other tractor projects. We don't hold anything out for news on TATA, but to still be flagged as under concept studies for commercial vehicles (see page 7 of the annual review) after all this time - and allow to be named - would suggest it's not the flaming torch of shareholder value it once was.
Summary
Torotrak are a company in flux. They started out as an academic research project and after targeting the much maligned SUV market (which collapsed before TRK got there) have diversified around in both application and size. Scaleability is being explored, but so is the business model of licensing and partnership because in today's tough times of austerity - there isn't a single car manufacturer project listed on the page 7 diagram. How do TRK get people to invest in their technology and commit to getting it to market ? Buying a seat on the JV board seems to be the current idea - but is that really going to get enough voting rights to make things happen ?
Perhaps at some point, TRK need to design a standardised transmission for a product that needs a CVT (scooters perhaps), find a customer who will put them in (and buy them!), and get a subcontractor to make them and sell them at a profit. Then and only then will Torotrak have real control over their destiny, at the moment they are just spectators, just like us shareholders. As such the JV with Rotrex will be watched with great interest.
More information here: http://torotrak.com/content/401/AGM-2010-details.aspx
The annual report is available here for those who have not yet read it:
http://torotrak.com/pdfs/annreps/Torotrak%20Annual%20Report%202010_final_for%20web_22%2006%2010.pdf
With promises of a launch of the quieter transmission from Infinitrak in MTD lawnmowers almost for a year now, and the possible news of the KERS unit being fitted to a Jag anytime soon as part of the TSB project there should be something for everyone, or just a sausage roll.
Progress with Allison and their standardised IVT transmission - and where they stand on licenses as well as the news on the current testing rigs for the European bus & truck manufacturer should be covered.
Additionally new partnerships as Rotrak for superchargers will be a topic of interest too. From the books it looks like TRK have put all the money in (even if it is as a loan - which seems a bit shakey) - but there is a nice photo of the CAD model on the website now.
Tech Talk
If you're interested the traditional pre-AGM tech talk has been arranged on this topic:
Subject... "The application of Toroidal Variable Auxiliary Drives (TVAD's) to super chargers"
Speakers... Roger Stone & Chris Brockbank
Time... 7:30pm on Wed 28th July
Location... http://www.hunterslodgemotel.co.uk/
Seeing as the preliminary results stated they are going to try to focus on shareholder value (and in one comment say that the shareholders to date therefore have not been getting any), it will be an interesting AGM to see if director salaries, royalties and licenses are going to be addressed as well as if more investment in joint ventures is the new flavour of the board.
The main concern is if the funds in the coffers are starting to burn holes in the boards pockets and they are getting jumpy. If there is excess money left in the coffers then a share-buy-back scheme might be the fastest way to deliver shareholder value. One other suggestion has been to get another licensee to purchase shares in the company - which is all well and good - but that is only likely to result in another share issue and dilution of shareholder value. Heaven forbid, they could even issue a DIVIDEND. But I've not got any hopes up.
Analysis of the preliminary report showed the short to medium term future of Torotrak is in the hands of Allison Transmissions - all outcomes are good - as long as they keep their current license - not continuing at all would obviously be bad. Some people seem to be holding out for Allison to take up all their global exclusivity options and more in terms of power rating - and anything else is bad news - which I can't agree with - as long as they are bringing their transmission to market that's great. If they are focussing on one solution at a time to get it to market and make it work in time for the emissions legislation that will hit - brilliant. The only bad news is if they stop all development - which for a company which owns 9% of TRK - is on the "highly unlikely" side of the scale.
Some news of Carraro would be welcomed, and any other tractor projects. We don't hold anything out for news on TATA, but to still be flagged as under concept studies for commercial vehicles (see page 7 of the annual review) after all this time - and allow to be named - would suggest it's not the flaming torch of shareholder value it once was.
Summary
Torotrak are a company in flux. They started out as an academic research project and after targeting the much maligned SUV market (which collapsed before TRK got there) have diversified around in both application and size. Scaleability is being explored, but so is the business model of licensing and partnership because in today's tough times of austerity - there isn't a single car manufacturer project listed on the page 7 diagram. How do TRK get people to invest in their technology and commit to getting it to market ? Buying a seat on the JV board seems to be the current idea - but is that really going to get enough voting rights to make things happen ?
Perhaps at some point, TRK need to design a standardised transmission for a product that needs a CVT (scooters perhaps), find a customer who will put them in (and buy them!), and get a subcontractor to make them and sell them at a profit. Then and only then will Torotrak have real control over their destiny, at the moment they are just spectators, just like us shareholders. As such the JV with Rotrex will be watched with great interest.
Thursday, 15 April 2010
May The Craftsman Zero Turn 42 inch 22 hp Model 28933 Rest In Peace
As you know - I'm not posting a great deal on this blog as the majority of content is automated and it keeps things ticking over as an information route.
Every now and again there are some nuggets of information I want to draw attention to and this is one of them:
May The Craftsman Zero Turn 42 inch 22 hp Model 28933 Rest In Peace
Given the technical success of the product and the twin-torroidal transmission, (TTT) in the Infinitrak range of products with MTD as the manufacturer, this news is either indicative of the continuing recession in the USA (which is tip-toeing it's way out) or the continued market positioning of the TTT as luxury just being too luxury for too many people.
One cannot fault the pedigree of the product, the market review (as can be read in the link above) however it seemed to be continually reviewed and measured in the wrong ride-on mower category because of it's zero-turn capabilities. The marketing appears to have been off target for the key customers if this is the case - if the experts can't even pigeon-hole it correctly what chance have the salesmen ?
Moving on - in other news we draw closer to the Jaguar project and their installation and adaptation of the Flybrid flywheel solution. Slide 14 - system as installed is the one to look at. on the link here:
http://www.climate-change-solutions.co.uk/pictures/content482/4-1_martin_dowson_-_fuel_cell_conf_v2.pdf
New Scientist magazine also recently highlighted the torotrak transmission credentials in their recent article here:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18769-green-machine-rethinking-internal-combustion-engines.html
as references to the technology become more and more public mainstream, hopefully the technology will also start to become more visible in the public domain - a million miles on from the acedemic and industry publications which previously held so much information and hope.
Until the Year end announcements or further RNS's, that's it from me. Hopefully there will be some dilligent forward looking statement on the situation with Sears and Infinitrak sometime soon (explaining that the single torroidal transmission is the reason why...)
Enjoy the spring weather !
Every now and again there are some nuggets of information I want to draw attention to and this is one of them:
May The Craftsman Zero Turn 42 inch 22 hp Model 28933 Rest In Peace
Given the technical success of the product and the twin-torroidal transmission, (TTT) in the Infinitrak range of products with MTD as the manufacturer, this news is either indicative of the continuing recession in the USA (which is tip-toeing it's way out) or the continued market positioning of the TTT as luxury just being too luxury for too many people.
One cannot fault the pedigree of the product, the market review (as can be read in the link above) however it seemed to be continually reviewed and measured in the wrong ride-on mower category because of it's zero-turn capabilities. The marketing appears to have been off target for the key customers if this is the case - if the experts can't even pigeon-hole it correctly what chance have the salesmen ?
Moving on - in other news we draw closer to the Jaguar project and their installation and adaptation of the Flybrid flywheel solution. Slide 14 - system as installed is the one to look at. on the link here:
http://www.climate-change-solutions.co.uk/pictures/content482/4-1_martin_dowson_-_fuel_cell_conf_v2.pdf
New Scientist magazine also recently highlighted the torotrak transmission credentials in their recent article here:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18769-green-machine-rethinking-internal-combustion-engines.html
as references to the technology become more and more public mainstream, hopefully the technology will also start to become more visible in the public domain - a million miles on from the acedemic and industry publications which previously held so much information and hope.
Until the Year end announcements or further RNS's, that's it from me. Hopefully there will be some dilligent forward looking statement on the situation with Sears and Infinitrak sometime soon (explaining that the single torroidal transmission is the reason why...)
Enjoy the spring weather !
Thursday, 28 January 2010
Torotrak TechTalk on Sunday the 31st January 2010
The Torotrak Tech Talk - Sunday 31st January
This weekend's Sunday Lunch and TechTalk takes place on Sunday the 31st January 2010The talk by John Fuller, (Group Leader – Hydraulics, Simulation and Modelling at Torotrak) is titled ‘Flywheel hybrid systems and the full-toroidal variator’.
It will be held this Sunday at the Lord Leycester Hotel in Warwick.
http://www.hobyhotels.com/lordindex.php
Please assemble ~12:00 for lunch at 13:00 and the talk starts ~14:00
You are ALL very welcome.
BRB (brb@msn.com)
Monday, 4 January 2010
Torotrak 2010 Tech Talk - Sunday January - 31st
Organised by Bob Bridges, there will be the annual Torotrak Tech talk presentation by TRK engineers themselves.
Sunday Lunch and Tech Talk
Yes we have another New Year Sunday Lunch & TechTalk lined up on the last Sunday of January (31.01.2010) and yet again it will be at the Lord Leycester Hotel in Warwick. As always the event is open to all, you do not need to be a member of the TPSA or even a shareholder, to join us.
The location is here: http://www.hobyhotels.com/lorddirections.php
and the rough timings are...
Sunday Lunch and Tech Talk
Yes we have another New Year Sunday Lunch & TechTalk lined up on the last Sunday of January (31.01.2010) and yet again it will be at the Lord Leycester Hotel in Warwick. As always the event is open to all, you do not need to be a member of the TPSA or even a shareholder, to join us.
The location is here: http://www.hobyhotels.com/lorddirections.php
and the rough timings are...
Saturday, 19 December 2009
Torotrak.org a shareholders perspective
Hello and welcome to my Torotrak page. Essentially it's my one stop shop page of information and news feeds on everything I know to be Torotrak. Why ? well mainly because I'm lazy and don't like to have to click back about the place all the time. You might be lazy too, so just bookmark this and I'll see you back later.
I'm not going to explain who or what Torotrak are here...
I'm not going to explain who or what Torotrak are here...
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